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World’s first Social Impact Bond Results
“With a 8.4% reduction rate in re-offending versus the control group, the minimum hurdle of 7.5% reduction has triggered the repayment of investor capital, along with a modest return, meaning the bond has surpassed the minimum threshold and is considered a success.”
Although the EVPA and other impact investing commentators trumpet the success and returns (see the excerpt above) they seem to gloss over the bumpy journey including government intervention to prematurely end the programme.
As a proof of concept, however, this set of results looks to be a promising. It would be interesting to have a further evaluation in 5 years to see if structural changes have been made. Will we see the additional reduction in re-offending rates remaining steady, increasing over time or regress to the mean.